According to a Reuters report on Tuesday July 17, Washington initially planned to totally shut Iran out of global oil markets after President Donald Trump abandoned a deal that limited Iran’s nuclear ambitions, demanding all other countries to stop buying its crude by November, but it has since somewhat eased its stance, saying that it may grant sanction waivers to some allies that are particularly reliant on Iranian supplies.
However, most analysts still think the sanctions will significantly reduce Iran’s crude oil exports with some of the worst case scenarios forecasting a two-thirds drop to only 700,000 barrels per day (bpd), the Reuters report added.
The Reuters report quoted energy consultancy Facts Global Energy (FGE) as saying that Iran’s crude exports could fall to only 700,000 bpd because of sanctions. Those exports would mainly go to China, with smaller shares going to India, Turkey and to other buyers with waivers.
Another 100,000 bpd of condensates could find their way to China, buyers with waivers and possibly to the United Arab Emirates and Korea, FGE says.